Page 39 - AAGLA-JUNE 2022

Member Update
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What Are the Odds of The Big One Striking?
The most comprehensive statewide analysis of earthquake probabilities determined that the chance of having one or more magnitude 6.7 or larger earthquakes in California over the next 30 years is 99.7%. The fault with the highest probability of such earthquakes is the southern San Andreas — 59% in the next 30 years. For powerful quakes of magnitude 7.5 or greater, there is a 37% chance that one or more will occur in the next 30 years in Southern California, according to the Earthquake Country Alliance, an organization comprised of the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program, the Federal Emergency Management Agency, the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services, and the Southern California Earthquake Center (a joint venture of the National Science Foundation and United States Geological Survey).
Throughout California, there are a frightening number of buildings that have been deemed vulnerable to collapse in a major earthquake (and thousands of people living, working and doing commerce in them). This includes wood-framed, soft-story structures built before 1978, tilt-ups constructed prior to the late 1970s, and some non-ductile and steel moment frame buildings. Guarding against their failure or collapse in an earthquake serves the interests of everyone in many ways:
• Save lives/prevent Injury
• Protect the assets, investments and revenue of building owners
• Preserve California’s economy
• Protect existing affordable multifamily housing
• Protect communities and vital public services
Every building protected from earthquakes enhances our resilience – the capacity to spring back quickly from hardship – for tenants, their employers, hospitals, government services and the building owners themselves. Every building saved means a family can remain in their homes, and employees can go to work. It’s another step
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away from the chaos and crime that can come when a community shuts down. And there are case studies that show seismic retrofits are a cost-effective measure for businesses and property owners.
When the Anheuser-Busch brewery in Van Nuys suffered significant damage in the 1971 Sylmar earthquake, the company invested $11 million in retrofitting structures on site to withstand the next major temblor – which came in 1994 with the Northridge quake. Even though the brewery was located just a few miles from the epicenter of that devastating 6.7-magnitude temblor, none of the retrofitted structures in the compound was damaged. The brewery was quickly returned to nearly full operations following minor cleanup and repairs. Anheuser-Busch estimated it would have suffered direct and business interruption losses of about $750 million from the Northridge earthquake without the retrofits, the Seismic Safety Commission reported after the fact. This averted damage of more than 60 times the actual cost of the brewery’s retrofit program.
Preparing for the “Big One” is not a personal matter left to individual building owners to decide. Widespread death and destruction impacts everyone. It’s a cause of the utmost social and economic concern. Ultimately, seismic retrofits of our vulnerable buildings keep the economic engine of society moving forward.
Are you concerned about the safety of your building? If so, contact Optimum Seismic to arrange a complimentary assessment of your building’s earthquake safety. We’ll get you the information and answers you need to make decisions that are right for you. Visit optimumseismic.com, or call us at (323) 978-7664 to learn more.
Ali Sahabi, a licensed General Engineering Contractor (GEC), is an expert in seismic resilience and sustainability. He is Co-Founder and Chief Operating Officer of Optimum Seismic, Inc., which has completed more than 3,500 seismic retrofitting and renovation projects for multifamily residential, commercial, and industrial buildings throughout California. For more information visit www.optimumseismic.com.
(310) 721-0129
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